Bogdan Ovsyannikov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bogdan Ovsyannikov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €626k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1349
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €437k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -46% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 63 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 61%–143%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | GK | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1349 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | GK | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1362 | 1257 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | GK | 6 | 540 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1294 | 1270 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | GK | 2 | 180 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1342 | 1289 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joris Delle Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Stijn van Gassel Eredivisie · 2023 | 27 | €900k | €450k | fell |
| Koen Van Langendonck Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 27 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Trigueira Liga Portugal · 2016 | 28 | €750k | €300k | fell |
| Etienne Vaessen Eredivisie · 2023 | 28 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Mattijs Branderhorst Eredivisie · 2022 | 28 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Niki Mäenpää Eredivisie · 2013 | 28 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Benjamin van Leer Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €900k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | KS Samara | Orenburg | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | KS Samara II | KS Samara | Unknown | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | KS 2 Samara | KS Samara II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Leiria U19 | KS 2 Samara | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2017 | KS 2 Samara | Leiria U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | KS Samara II | KS 2 Samara | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 17 Aug 2016 | Volga NN U19 | KS Samara II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.