Nicolai Vallys
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolai Vallys's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (1606 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1606 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1336
- Opponent strength
- 1254
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -65% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1606 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | LW | 20 | 1606 | 81% | 5 | 5 | 0.56 | 0.41 | 1254 | 1336 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | LW | 16 | 995 | 50% | 2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 1324 | 1342 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | AM | 22 | 1920 | 97% | 10 | 7 | 0.80 | 0.52 | 1286 | 1417 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | LW | 15 | 1309 | 66% | 6 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 1284 | 1329 | 0.47 |
| 2022/23 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | LW | 6 | 515 | 26% | 2 | 3 | 0.87 | 0.59 | 1303 | 1266 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | LW | 22 | 1903 | 96% | 8 | 7 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 1275 | 1231 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | RW | 23 | 1406 | 60% | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 1296 | 1098 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 5 | 450 | 2 | 1 | 1405 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 196 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 4 | 261 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 3 | 248 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1367 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 1 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 170 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 4 | 371 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Zabolotnyi Premier Liga · 2021 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Krzysztof Piatek Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Dmitriy Poloz Premier Liga · 2021 | 30 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Jhonder Cádiz Liga Portugal · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Stefano Napoleoni Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Davidson Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ohi Omoijuanfo Superliga · 2024 | 30 | €1.8M | €350k | fell |
| Deniz Türüç Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €1.7M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2022 | Silkeborg IF | Bröndby IF | €3.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Roskilde | Silkeborg IF | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Skovshoved | FC Roskilde | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2016 | BK Skjold | Skovshoved | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | BK Skjold U19 | BK Skjold | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.