Fernando Costanza
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fernando Costanza's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.59x the positional average in the league (2001 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2001 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1335
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €872k – €2.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -60% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | DM | 25 | 2001 | 74% | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 1335 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | DM | 21 | 1688 | 63% | 1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 1286 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 2315 | 86% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1322 | 1257 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | DM | 13 | 958 | 35% | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 1293 | 1270 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | DM | 9 | 790 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1350 | 1289 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 6 | 465 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 3 | 124 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 4 | 197 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 7 | 524 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Sheriff Tiraspol | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1703 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Sheriff Tiraspol | 3 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Timofeev Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €1.8M | €2.8M | rose |
| Willie Overtoom Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Taylan Antalyalı Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €2.3M | €900k | fell |
| Tino-Sven Susic Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Mladen Bartulovic Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Christophe Lepoint Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Rafał Augustyniak Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
| Maxime Dominguez Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2022 | FC Sheriff | KS Samara | €800k | €1.0M |
| 6 Feb 2021 | Botafogo | FC Sheriff | Free / loan | €600k |
| 22 Apr 2019 | LOSC Lille B | Botafogo | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Aug 2018 | Botafogo | LOSC Lille B | Free / loan | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.