Paulo Vítor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paulo Vítor's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (1176 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €426k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1176 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1165
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €345k – €895k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -38% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1176 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | RW | 24 | 1176 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 1165 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2022/23 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LM | 25 | 1105 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1366 | 1329 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 2 | 101 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Koomson Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Andriy Kulakov Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Fabricio Alvarenga Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Moryké Fofana Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Ximo Navarro Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Nouha Dicko Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.1M | €600k | fell |
| Dmytro Topalov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Ramazan Civelek Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Karpaty Lviv | Portimonense | Free / loan | €700k |
| 24 Jul 2025 | Portimonense | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €550k |
| 2 Aug 2024 | Cruzeiro | Portimonense | Unknown | €400k |
| 22 Jul 2024 | Novorizontino | Cruzeiro | Free / loan | €400k |
| 17 Jan 2024 | Cruzeiro | Novorizontino | Free / loan | €400k |
| 4 Jul 2023 | Real Valladolid | Cruzeiro | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Rio Ave | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €400k |
| 16 Jul 2022 | Real Valladolid | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Valladolid Prom | Real Valladolid | Unknown | €400k |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Marbella FC | Valladolid Prom | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vasco da Gama | Marbella FC | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Marbella FC | Vasco da Gama | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Vasco da Gama | Marbella FC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Albacete | Vasco da Gama | Free / loan | €300k |
| 27 Aug 2018 | Vasco da Gama | Albacete | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Vasco U17 | Vasco da Gama | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.