Júnior Brumado
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Júnior Brumado's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-8.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (870 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 46.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €55k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 870 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.72
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €515k – €1.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -46% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 870 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 17 | 870 | 44% | 5 | 2 | 0.72 | 0.40 | 1265 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2023/24 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 2 | 139 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 1372 | 1449 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 4 | 83 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1252 | 1368 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 16 | 1182 | 60% | 8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0.50 | 1288 | 1429 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 4 | 271 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 1200 | 1450 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 17 | 760 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 1237 | 1500 | 0.41 |
| 2019/20 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | ST | 5 | 423 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.68 | 1329 | 1098 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 9 | 600 | 1 | 0 | 1480 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 352 | 6 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 170 | 4 | 0 | 1332 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | FC Hansa Rostock | 1 | 78 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 312 | 0 | 0 | 1576 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 305 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 215 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasper Kusk Superliga · 2017 | 26 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Artem Besedin Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Miguel Ángel Guerrero Super League 1 · 2019 | 29 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Gustav Wikheim Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Pieros Sotiriou Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €1.4M | €2.2M | rose |
| Wesley Verhoek Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €1.4M | €250k | fell |
| Aleksey Sutormin Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Chuba Akpom Super League 1 · 2020 | 25 | €2.4M | €3.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Coritiba FC | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €900k |
| 25 Jul 2024 | Midtjylland | Coritiba FC | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Hansa Rostock | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Midtjylland | Hansa Rostock | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Silkeborg IF | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Midtjylland | Silkeborg IF | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | EC Bahia | Midtjylland | €2.3M | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Bahia B | EC Bahia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2017 | Bahia U20 | Bahia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.