Kervin Arriaga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kervin Arriaga's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-4.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.38x the positional average in the league (1526 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1526 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €886k – €2.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -54% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1526 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | DM | 27 | 1526 | 45% | 3 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 1466 | 1420 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Partizan Belgrade | 2 | 203 | 0 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Partizan Belgrade | 2 | 146 | 0 | 0 | 1455 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Partizan Belgrade | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1458 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Pajot Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Luca Marrone Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
| Djakaridja Koné Ligue 1 · 2013 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Gonzalo Melero Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Gerard Gumbau Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Milos Jojic Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €475k | fell |
| Sejad Salihovic Bundesliga · 2013 | 29 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Nikola Drincic Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | Partizan | Levante | €500k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Real Zaragoza | Partizan | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 9 Jan 2025 | Partizan | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Minnesota | Partizan | €500k | €1.5M |
| 16 Feb 2022 | Marathón | Minnesota | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Jul 2019 | Platense FC | Marathón | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Platense Res. | Platense FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.