Pablo Álvarez

The model rates Pablo Álvarez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.61x the positional average in the league (1010 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1010 (37% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.27

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.20

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

16 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.25 (rank 30)

Team strength (Elo)

1213

Opponent strength

1175

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€377k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 43 pts; relative output up 151% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -59% to -6%).

• ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠Limited sample: 1010 league minutes last season.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

37 (all positions)

Relative output kept

87%–128%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

86%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.