Mathias Kjølø
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mathias Kjølø's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.45x the positional average in the league (517 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 26.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €375k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 517 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1364
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €539k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -19% to +63%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 517 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | DM | 19 | 517 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1364 | 1403 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | DM | 22 | 855 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1334 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | DM | 31 | 2248 | 73% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1366 | 1466 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | CM | 22 | 1002 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1343 | 1505 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1330 | 1567 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Twente Enschede | 6 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1543 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 115 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 6 | 475 | 0 | 1 | 1425 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1337 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Sabo Super League 1 · 2016 | 25 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Chris Cadden Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 25 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Sulayman Marreh Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Eric Tié Bi Super League 1 · 2015 | 25 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Maksim Vityugov Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Ruud Vormer Eredivisie · 2013 | 25 | €1.3M | €3.0M | rose |
| Christopher Operi Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €500k | €4.0M | rose |
| Ismaïla N'Diaye Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €600k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | PSV U21 | FC Twente | Unknown | €650k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | PSV U19 | PSV U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vålerenga Yth. | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | PSV U17 | Vålerenga Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Jul 2017 | Vålerenga Yth. | PSV U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Kjelsås Yth. | Vålerenga Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.