Mads Søndergaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mads Søndergaard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.55x the positional average in the league (1080 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €901k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1080 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1286
- Opponent strength
- 1286
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €961k – €3.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -31% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1080 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 17 | 1080 | 55% | 5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.34 | 1286 | 1286 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 7 | 207 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.23 | 1240 | 1222 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 18 | 1060 | 54% | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1275 | 1261 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 18 | 424 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1342 | 1327 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 5 | 386 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 6 | 314 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 2 | 48 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 4 | 287 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Viborg FF | 5 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1331 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechi Sadulaev Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Reuven Niemeijer Eredivisie · 2018 | 23 | €1.3M | €350k | fell |
| Athanasios Androutsos Super League 1 · 2020 | 23 | €600k | €1.2M | rose |
| Deroy Duarte Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Milson Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Christian Cappis Superliga · 2023 | 24 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Victor Jensen Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Youssouf Ndayishimiye Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €2.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2020 | Viborg FF U19 | Viborg FF | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Viborg FF Youth | Viborg FF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.