Amine Adli

26 yrs · Left winger (also RW, SS) · Morocco
AFC Bournemouth · Premier League · Foot: left · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€20.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€11.8M – €23.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€14.5M – €29.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€8.7M – €24.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€8.9M – €17.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€11.8M – €23.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€14.5M – €29.2M
Projected value (24 months)€8.7M – €24.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€20.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Amine Adli's performance-implied value at EUR 14.5M-29.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.8M-23.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.7M-24.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1082 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 38

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh89.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.1 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €17.9M vs market €20.0M
Expected appreciationLow-18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1082 (32% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.42
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.43
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1643
Opponent strength
1580
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€8.7M – €24.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+126 Elo); role change SS -> LW; relative output up 110% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -54% to -5%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1082 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AFC BournemouthPremier LeagueLW31108232%320.420.43158016431.30
2024/25Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaSS2075925%210.360.25147616810.94
2023/24Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaSS2388929%461.010.59151217871.01
2022/23Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaLW26144047%550.630.39152716011.04
2021/22Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaRW25125541%320.360.27150616391.05
2019/20FC ToulouseLigue 1LW4422%000.000.68147612100.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Fa CupAFC Bournemouth17100—
2025/26Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen14501—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5212001675
2024/25Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen214501—
2024/25Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayer 04 Leverkusen173001637
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen13981121541
2023/24Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen639154—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen8278211567
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen4118001654
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen8498111575
2021/22Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen19001—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Danny Welbeck
Premier League · 2018
28€15.0M€5.5Mfell
Daniel Sturridge
Premier League · 2016
27€25.0M€15.0Mfell
Anthony Martial
Premier League · 2023
28€15.0M€7.5Mfell
Kelechi Iheanacho
Premier League · 2021
25€20.0M€18.0Mflat
Patson Daka
Premier League · 2022
24€20.0M€15.0Mfell
Saïd Benrahma
Premier League · 2021
26€22.0M€25.0Mflat
Michy Batshuayi
Premier League · 2019
26€30.0M€10.0Mfell
Adnan Januzaj
Laliga · 2020
25€9.5M€12.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
21 Aug 2025LeverkusenBournemouth€21.0M€18.0M
26 Aug 2021ToulouseLeverkusen€7.5M€6.0M
1 Jul 2019Toulouse BToulouseUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Toulouse U19Toulouse BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Toulouse FC U17Toulouse U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Béziers JugendToulouse FC U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.