
Amine Adli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amine Adli's performance-implied value at EUR 14.5M-29.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.8M-23.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.7M-24.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1082 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €17.9M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1082 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1580
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.7M – €24.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+126 Elo); role change SS -> LW; relative output up 110% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -54% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1082 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | LW | 31 | 1082 | 32% | 3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 1580 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | SS | 20 | 759 | 25% | 2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 1476 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | SS | 23 | 889 | 29% | 4 | 6 | 1.01 | 0.59 | 1512 | 1787 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 26 | 1440 | 47% | 5 | 5 | 0.63 | 0.39 | 1527 | 1601 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RW | 25 | 1255 | 41% | 3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 1506 | 1639 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | LW | 4 | 42 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 1476 | 1210 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 212 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 145 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 13 | 981 | 1 | 2 | 1541 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 391 | 5 | 4 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 278 | 2 | 1 | 1567 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 498 | 1 | 1 | 1575 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Welbeck Premier League · 2018 | 28 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Daniel Sturridge Premier League · 2016 | 27 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Kelechi Iheanacho Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Patson Daka Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Saïd Benrahma Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Michy Batshuayi Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €30.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Adnan Januzaj Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €9.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2025 | Leverkusen | Bournemouth | €21.0M | €18.0M |
| 26 Aug 2021 | Toulouse | Leverkusen | €7.5M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Toulouse B | Toulouse | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Toulouse U19 | Toulouse B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Toulouse FC U17 | Toulouse U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Béziers Jugend | Toulouse FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.