Arda Kızıldağ
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arda Kızıldağ's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €301k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1766 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1167
- Opponent strength
- 1278
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €417k – €803k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -31% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1766 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CB | 25 | 1766 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1278 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CB | 25 | 1905 | 59% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1295 | 1198 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CB | 29 | 2315 | 68% | 4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 1302 | 1212 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | CB | 7 | 452 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1323 | 1226 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CB | 8 | 417 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 1272 | 1106 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 31 | 2430 | 68% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1284 | 1130 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 3 | 258 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1298 | 1206 | 0.45 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Björkander Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Oleksandr Kapliyenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Nikolay Zolotov Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Nikolaos Karanikas Super League 1 · 2019 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Soner Gönül Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Triantafyllos Pasalidis Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Émerson Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Ivan Bandalovski Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 28 | €700k | €750k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Ankaragücü | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €700k |
| 24 Feb 2023 | Gaziantep FK | Ankaragücü | Free / loan | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Genclerbirligi | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Hacettepe | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €50k |
| 14 Aug 2018 | Genclerbirligi | Hacettepe | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Hacettepe | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €50k |
| 22 Aug 2017 | Genclerbirligi | Hacettepe | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Aug 2017 | G.Birligi U21 | Genclerbirligi | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | G.Birligi U19 | G.Birligi U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | G.Birligi Yth | G.Birligi U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.