
Nil Coch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nil Coch's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €240k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2309 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1091
- Opponent strength
- 1161
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €264k – €437k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -39% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2309 | 86% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1161 | 1091 | 0.25 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan McGhee Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €350k | €100k | fell |
| Ilya Putrya Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Vladyslav Pryimak Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Georgios Kornezos Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Praxitelis Vouros Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €700k | €600k | flat |
| Frederik Möller Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Nikolaos Korovesis Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Georgios Mygas Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | Pobla de Mafumet CF | Epicentr | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2024 | Without Club | Pobla de Mafumet CF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Palencia Cristo | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Aug 2023 | SD Oyonesa | Palencia Cristo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Ascó | SD Oyonesa | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | CD Vitoria | FC Ascó | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Pobla de Mafumet CF | CD Vitoria | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2019 | FC Vilafranca | Pobla de Mafumet CF | Free / loan | €50k |
| 26 Jan 2019 | Pobla de Mafumet CF | FC Vilafranca | Free / loan | €50k |
| 25 Jan 2019 | CD Badajoz | Pobla de Mafumet CF | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Sept 2018 | Pobla de Mafumet CF | CD Badajoz | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Betis Deportivo | Pobla de Mafumet CF | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Sept 2017 | Pobla de Mafumet CF | Betis Deportivo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Nàstic U19 | Pobla de Mafumet CF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.