İlkay Gündoğan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates İlkay Gündoğan's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (1391 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 88.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €746k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1391 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1501
- Opponent strength
- 1248
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €481k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; changed club; team strength down (-248 Elo); league level down (-321 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -75% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1391 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CM | 24 | 1391 | 45% | 2 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 1248 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 33 | 2229 | 65% | 1 | 7 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 1569 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2998 | 88% | 5 | 9 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 1494 | 1723 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 31 | 2359 | 69% | 8 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.21 | 1542 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 27 | 1855 | 54% | 8 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.22 | 1531 | 1866 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 28 | 2031 | 59% | 13 | 3 | 0.71 | 0.33 | 1541 | 1883 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 31 | 2017 | 59% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1608 | 1848 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 31 | 2135 | 62% | 6 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 1520 | 1924 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 30 | 1510 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.16 | 1566 | 1831 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 10 | 710 | 21% | 3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.24 | 1530 | 1713 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 1993 | 65% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1518 | 1718 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 23 | 1911 | 62% | 3 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1507 | 1622 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 1 | 57 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1446 | 1751 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 2126 | 69% | 3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1430 | 1746 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 8 | 415 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 523 | 2 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 6 | 374 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 10 | 835 | 0 | 4 | 1638 |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1625 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 167 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 13 | 997 | 1 | 2 | 1685 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 255 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 659 | 0 | 2 | 1664 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 353 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 12 | 977 | 3 | 1 | 1641 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 195 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 810 | 2 | 2 | 1635 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 308 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1928 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 590 | 0 | 1 | 1616 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 6 | 441 | 0 | 4 | — |
| 2018/19 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 503 | 2 | 2 | 1642 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 256 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 520 | 2 | 1 | 1676 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 369 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 324 | 0 | 0 | 1527 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 323 | 1 | 3 | 1439 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 420 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 384 | 0 | 1 | 1665 |
| 2013/14 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 88 | 1 | 0 | 1903 |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Valbuena Super League 1 · 2021 | 37 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Mehmet Topal Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €900k | €100k | fell |
| Alejandro Domínguez Super League 1 · 2016 | 35 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Marek Hamsik Super Lig · 2022 | 35 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Costin Lazar Super League 1 · 2014 | 33 | €1.2M | €250k | fell |
| Christian Poulsen Eredivisie · 2014 | 34 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Jens Jønsson Super League 1 · 2024 | 31 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Filip Djuricic Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sept 2025 | Man City | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Barcelona | Man City | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Man City | Barcelona | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Dortmund | Man City | €27.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Dortmund | €5.5M | €6.5M |
| 3 Feb 2009 | VfL Bochum U19 | 1.FC Nuremberg | €850k | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2007 | VfL Bochum U17 | VfL Bochum U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | SSV Buer Yth. | VfL Bochum U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Heßler 06 Yth. | SSV Buer Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 1999 | Schalke 04 Yth. | Heßler 06 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 1998 | Heßler 06 Yth. | Schalke 04 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.