Felix Winther
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Felix Winther's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1493 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €242k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1493 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €342k – €872k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -29% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1493 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Fredericia | Superliga | CM | 18 | 1493 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 1268 | 1183 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Fredericia | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Pérez Super League 1 · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €600k | rose |
| Fatjon Andoni Super League 1 · 2018 | 27 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Franco Mazurek Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Jens Jakob Thomasen Superliga · 2022 | 26 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Odysseus Velanas Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €750k | €550k | fell |
| Alexandros Kartalis Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Ibrahim Moro Superliga · 2018 | 25 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Muammer Sarıkaya Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2024 | Tromsø IL | FC Fredericia | Unknown | €250k |
| 12 May 2021 | Fremad Amager | Tromsø IL | €100k | €200k |
| 27 Jul 2019 | Copenhagen U19 | Fremad Amager | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.