Tomas Cvancara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tomas Cvancara's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-2.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1056 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1056 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1273
- Opponent strength
- 1174
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €717k – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-154 Elo); league level down (-247 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -67% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1056 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 9 | 530 | 18% | 2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.36 | 1174 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2025/26 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | ST | 11 | 526 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.41 | 1236 | 1139 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | ST | 28 | 818 | 27% | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 1509 | 1427 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | ST | 21 | 892 | 29% | 4 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 1507 | 1435 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 142 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 2 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 157 | 2 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selim Ilgaz Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.0M | €250k | fell |
| Anastasios Chatzigiovanis Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
| Mustapha Bundu Superliga · 2022 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Alassane Ndao Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €2.2M | €1.3M | fell |
| Ahmet Engin Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €400k | fell |
| Ramazan Civelek Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €1.0M | flat |
| Benik Afobe Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Emre Mor Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Celtic | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Mönchengladbach | Celtic | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Dec 2025 | Antalyaspor | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Mönchengladbach | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Sparta Prague | Mönchengladbach | €10.5M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Jablonec | Sparta Prague | €500k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | SFC Opava | Jablonec | Free / loan | €250k |
| 14 Jan 2021 | Jablonec | SFC Opava | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Vysehrad | Jablonec | Free / loan | €300k |
| 17 Jul 2019 | Jablonec | Vysehrad | Free / loan | €25k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Empoli U19 | Jablonec | Free / loan | €25k |
| 16 Jan 2019 | Jablonec | Empoli U19 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 22 Feb 2018 | Slavia U19 | Jablonec | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Slavia U17 | Slavia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Feb 2017 | Meteor Yth. | Slavia U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Aug 2016 | Libis Yth. | Meteor Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jan 2016 | Neratovice Yth. | Libis Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2015 | Admira Yth. | Neratovice Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Jan 2015 | Neratovice Yth. | Admira Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Sparta Yth. | Neratovice Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Mar 2010 | Neratovice Yth. | Sparta Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Sept 2009 | Libis Yth. | Neratovice Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.