Nicolás Otamendi

The model rates Nicolás Otamendi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2605 (85% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.17

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.08

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 17)

Team strength (Elo)

1634

Opponent strength

1304

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€483k – €1.0M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 42% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -59% to -23%).

• ▲Age 38: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

66 (DEF)

Relative output kept

57%–168%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

76%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.