Fabiano Parisi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabiano Parisi's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-12.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-7.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (1528 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1528 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €7.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-74 Elo); role change LB -> RW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -52% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1528 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RW | 23 | 1528 | 45% | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 1487 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LB | 26 | 1116 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1538 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LB | 21 | 1451 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1468 | 1583 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | LB | 33 | 2834 | 83% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1473 | 1388 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | FC Empoli | Serie A | LB | 25 | 1475 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1487 | 1331 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1208 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 139 | 0 | 1 | 1417 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 3 | 184 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1472 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Caicedo Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Marius Wolf Bundesliga · 2020 | 25 | €6.5M | €6.5M | flat |
| Loïs Diony Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Max Gradel Ligue 1 · 2013 | 26 | €4.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Hélder Barbosa Liga Portugal · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Robert Beric Ligue 1 · 2017 | 26 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Maicosuel Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €3.7M | €3.0M | flat |
| Sandro Ramírez Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2023 | FC Empoli | Fiorentina | €10.0M | €10.0M |
| 22 Sept 2020 | Avellino | Empoli | €450k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benevento U19 | Avellino | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Avellino | Benevento U19 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Benevento U19 | Avellino | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benevento U17 | Benevento U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.