Diego Esteban
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diego Esteban's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (1952 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €180k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1952 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1250
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €342k – €583k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -16% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | CM | 25 | 1952 | 83% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 1250 | 1182 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 4 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strain Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €650k | €600k | flat |
| Vito Hammershöy-Mistrati Superliga · 2018 | 26 | €500k | €475k | flat |
| Hallur Hansson Superliga · 2017 | 25 | €400k | €600k | rose |
| Mustafa Amini Superliga · 2018 | 25 | €600k | €550k | flat |
| Patrick Da Silva Superliga · 2020 | 26 | €300k | €400k | rose |
| Christian Jakobsen Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €475k | €250k | fell |
| Juan Muñiz Super League 1 · 2020 | 28 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Stavros Vasilantonopoulos Super League 1 · 2018 | 26 | €500k | €325k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Algeciras CF | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 13 Jul 2023 | SD Logroñés | Algeciras CF | Free / loan | €200k |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Betis Deportivo | SD Logroñés | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | SD Logroñés | Betis Deportivo | Free / loan | €150k |
| 16 Sept 2020 | Betis Deportivo | SD Logroñés | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jul 2020 | SD Logroñés | Betis Deportivo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 26 Sept 2019 | Betis Deportivo | SD Logroñés | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Betis U19 | Betis Deportivo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Real Betis Yth. | Betis U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.