Ryan Strain
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ryan Strain's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.45x the positional average in the league (910 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €247k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 910 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1218
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €187k – €409k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -15% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 910 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 16 | 910 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1218 | 1177 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 24 | 1883 | 63% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1225 | 1193 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 13 | 1024 | 34% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1257 | 1192 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 31 | 2481 | 84% | 3 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1295 | 1217 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 2 | 115 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1309 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 182 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Haring Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| James Jeggo Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 32 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Dmytro Myshnyov Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Amedej Vetrih Super Lig · 2022 | 32 | €275k | €275k | flat |
| Konstantinos Mendrinos Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Sambou Sissoko Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Andy Rose Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 29 | €400k | €450k | flat |
| Isaac Osbourne Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €350k | €325k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Dundee United | Without Club | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | St. Mirren | Dundee United | Free / loan | €850k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Maccabi Haifa | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Adelaide United | Maccabi Haifa | €300k | €400k |
| 22 Dec 2017 | Adelaide U21 | Adelaide United | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Modbury Jets SC | Adelaide U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Aston Villa U18 | Modbury Jets SC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.