Luca Oyen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luca Oyen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (469 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 5.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €581k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 469 (15% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1284
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €424k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -18% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 469 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LW | 14 | 469 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 1320 | 1284 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 2 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1484 | 1535 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 15 | 634 | 23% | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 1388 | 1459 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 3 | 51 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1497 | 1495 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 20 | 635 | 21% | 2 | 3 | 0.71 | 0.42 | 1313 | 1356 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 17 | 506 | 17% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 1316 | 1414 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 88 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1403 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1456 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusuf Barası Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €950k | €800k | flat |
| Samuel Mráz Superliga · 2020 | 23 | €650k | €600k | flat |
| Filip Stevanovic Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Yan Sasse Super Lig · 2020 | 23 | €725k | €450k | fell |
| Érick Moreno Super League 1 · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Egor Golenkov Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €800k | €2.5M | rose |
| Alan Pulido Super League 1 · 2015 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Théo Fonseca Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €600k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | Jong Genk | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €900k |
| 9 Sept 2025 | Genk | Jong Genk | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | KRC Genk U21 | Genk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | KRC Genk Youth | KRC Genk U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.