Jon Moncayola
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jon Moncayola's performance-implied value at EUR 5.3M-15.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-7.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-7.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (3029 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3029 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1489
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €7.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; relative output up 83% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -48% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 36 | 3029 | 89% | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 1489 | 1427 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 32 | 2113 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1513 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 33 | 1803 | 53% | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 1486 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 37 | 2443 | 71% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1533 | 1455 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2924 | 85% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 1543 | 1446 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2664 | 78% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 1580 | 1471 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1491 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 1537 | 1478 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 172 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 3 | 226 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CA Osasuna | 2 | 180 | 0 | 2 | 1501 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | CA Osasuna | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 7 | 565 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 382 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemanja Maksimovic Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Anthony Caci Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Yann M'Vila Premier Liga · 2018 | 28 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Luca Cigarini Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Danny Latza Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| James Morrison Premier League · 2015 | 29 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Moritz Bauer Premier Liga · 2018 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Cheik Tioté Premier League · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Osasuna B | CA Osasuna | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Nov 2017 | CD Iruña | Osasuna B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Osasuna U19 | CD Iruña | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.