
Anthony Caci
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Anthony Caci's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-7.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-7.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-5.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (520 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 75.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.0M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 520 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1431
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €5.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 71 pts; relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -66% (IQR -76% to -40%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 520 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 10 | 520 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1431 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 33 | 2705 | 88% | 1 | 7 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 1498 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | LM | 31 | 2493 | 81% | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1522 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | LM | 31 | 2035 | 67% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1533 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LB | 37 | 2394 | 70% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1424 | 1503 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LB | 33 | 2806 | 82% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1429 | 1380 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LB | 8 | 693 | 29% | 1 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 1426 | 1430 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2301 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1480 | 1408 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 170 | 0 | 1 | 1334 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 170 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentin Rongier Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Youssouf Mulumbu Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Rick Karsdorp Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Riccardo Montolivo Serie A · 2015 | 30 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Ignacio Camacho Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €10.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Denis Suárez Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €5.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Jony Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €6.8M | €800k | fell |
| Diego Laxalt Serie A · 2019 | 26 | €12.0M | €3.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | R. Strasbourg | Mainz | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | R. Strasbourg B | R. Strasbourg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Strasbourg U19 | R. Strasbourg B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Strasbourg U17 | Strasbourg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Strasbourg Yth. | Strasbourg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.