Anthony Caci

29 yrs · Right-back (also CB, LB, LM, RM) · France
1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga · Foot: both · Height: 184 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€7.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€2.8M – €7.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.3M – €7.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.5M – €5.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.8M – €4.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.8M – €7.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.3M – €7.2M
Projected value (24 months)€1.5M – €5.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Anthony Caci's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-7.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-7.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-5.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (520 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh75.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.0M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-50% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
520 (17% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
75 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1485
Opponent strength
1431
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.5M – €5.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 71 pts; relative output down 45% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -66% (IQR -76% to -40%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 520 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/261.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaRM1052017%000.000.12143114850.94
2024/251.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaRM33270588%170.270.21149815150.94
2023/241.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaLM31249381%230.180.16152214891.01
2022/231.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaLM31203567%220.180.18153314961.04
2021/22RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1LB37239470%130.150.15142415030.86
2020/21RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1LB33280682%020.060.09142913800.75
2019/20RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1LB869329%140.650.46142614300.82
2018/19RC Strasbourg AlsaceLigue 1CB29230167%010.040.06148014080.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League Qualifying1.FSV Mainz 052170011334
2024/25Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05215800—
2023/24Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05217001—
2022/23Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Valentin Rongier
Ligue 1 · 2024
30€12.0M€8.0Mfell
Youssouf Mulumbu
Premier League · 2015
28€3.5M€2.5Mfell
Rick Karsdorp
Serie A · 2023
28€7.0M€3.0Mfell
Riccardo Montolivo
Serie A · 2015
30€6.0M€3.5Mfell
Ignacio Camacho
Bundesliga · 2018
28€10.0M€2.4Mfell
Denis Suárez
Laliga · 2023
29€5.0M€1.2Mfell
Jony
Serie A · 2020
29€6.8M€800kfell
Diego Laxalt
Serie A · 2019
26€12.0M€3.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022R. StrasbourgMainzFree / loan€7.0M
1 Jul 2018R. Strasbourg BR. StrasbourgUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Strasbourg U19R. Strasbourg BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Strasbourg U17Strasbourg U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Strasbourg Yth.Strasbourg U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Anthony Caci · MoneyballAI