Nahuel Estévez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nahuel Estévez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (1032 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €874k vs market €1.4M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1032 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1511
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €369k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -75% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1032 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | DM | 32 | 1032 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 1511 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | DM | 14 | 659 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1546 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2020/21 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | CM | 27 | 1772 | 52% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1461 | 1363 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 3 | 133 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urby Emanuelson Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €800k | €1.3M | rose |
| Ridgeciano Haps Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Paolo De Ceglie Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Diniyar Bilyaletdinov Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €1.4M | €300k | fell |
| Camilo Zúñiga Premier League · 2017 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Gaetano D'Agostino Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €1.5M | €100k | fell |
| Alou Diarra Ligue 1 · 2013 | 32 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jérémy Grimm Ligue 1 · 2018 | 31 | €600k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Parma | Without Club | Unknown | €1.4M |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Crotone | Parma | €1.3M | €1.4M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Estudiantes LP | Crotone | €1.6M | €1.4M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Crotone | Estudiantes LP | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 25 Aug 2021 | Estudiantes LP | Crotone | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Spezia Calcio | Estudiantes LP | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 21 Sept 2020 | Estudiantes LP | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Sarmiento Junin | Estudiantes LP | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 Nov 2017 | Estudiantes LP | Sarmiento Junin | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Sept 2017 | Comunicaciones | Estudiantes LP | €110k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Comun. U20 | Comunicaciones | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.