Lewis Holtby
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lewis Holtby's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.48x the positional average in the league (1942 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 38.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €103k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1942 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1118
- Opponent strength
- 1299
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €115k – €283k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club; team strength down (-178 Elo); league level down (-205 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -67% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | CM | 30 | 1942 | 63% | 1 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 1299 | 1118 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Holstein Kiel | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 1235 | 40% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 1523 | 1296 | 0.94 |
| 2017/18 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | CM | 16 | 1197 | 39% | 6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 1510 | 1410 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | AM | 29 | 2421 | 79% | 1 | 6 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 1539 | 1440 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | CM | 34 | 2907 | 95% | 3 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 1535 | 1433 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | CM | 22 | 1587 | 52% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 1565 | 1395 | 1.03 |
| 2014/15 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | LM | 1 | 29 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1484 | 1576 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Fulham FC | Premier League | AM | 13 | 921 | 27% | 1 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 1543 | 1379 | 1.12 |
| 2013/14 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | AM | 13 | 568 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 1531 | 1621 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CM | 19 | 1459 | 48% | 4 | 7 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 1438 | 1604 | 1.11 |
| 2012/13 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 11 | 508 | 15% | 0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 1537 | 1616 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Holstein Kiel | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1399 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 280 | 1 | 2 | 1418 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 1351 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 490 | 0 | 3 | 1538 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 113 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Carey Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 34 | €450k | €75k | fell |
| Tomás De Vincenti Super League 1 · 2023 | 34 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Charlie Adam Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 37 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Aatif Chahechouhe Super Lig · 2021 | 35 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Iain Vigurs Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 33 | €300k | €125k | fell |
| Oleksiy Dovgyi Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Paul McGowan Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 35 | €250k | €175k | fell |
| Cenk Ahmet Alkilic Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €275k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2025 | Holstein Kiel | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €500k |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Blackburn | Holstein Kiel | Free / loan | €600k |
| 19 Sept 2019 | Without Club | Blackburn | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hamburg | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Tottenham | Hamburg | €6.5M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Hamburg | Tottenham | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Tottenham | Hamburg | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 31 May 2014 | Fulham | Tottenham | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 31 Jan 2014 | Tottenham | Fulham | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 28 Jan 2013 | FC Schalke 04 | Tottenham | €1.8M | €11.0M |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Mainz | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FC Schalke 04 | Mainz | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2010 | VfL Bochum | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 29 Jan 2010 | FC Schalke 04 | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 7 Jul 2009 | Alem. Aachen | FC Schalke 04 | €3.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2008 | A. Aachen II | Alem. Aachen | Unknown | €100k |
| 15 Mar 2008 | Aachen U19 | A. Aachen II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2007 | Aachen U17 | Aachen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Aachen Yth. | Aachen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | M'gladbach Yth. | Aachen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | Gerderath Yth. | M'gladbach Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.