Martín Payero
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martín Payero's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1460 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1460 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1299
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-90 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1460 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Cremonese | Serie A | CM | 25 | 1460 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 1507 | 1299 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 25 | 1383 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 1493 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 29 | 1801 | 53% | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 1509 | 1420 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 108 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Bradaric Serie A · 2019 | 27 | €4.5M | €2.7M | fell |
| Jim Allevinah Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Rémi Oudin Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| João Pedro Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Jack Rodwell Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Graham Dorrans Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dániel Tőzsér Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Cremonese | Udinese | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 22 Aug 2025 | Udinese | Cremonese | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Middlesbrough | Udinese | €3.0M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Boca Juniors | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 14 Jul 2022 | Middlesbrough | Boca Juniors | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 5 Aug 2021 | Banfield | Middlesbrough | €6.8M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | CA Talleres | Banfield | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Banfield | CA Talleres | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Banfield II | Banfield | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | CA Banfield U20 | Banfield II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.