Alemão
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alemão's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-6.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-4.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1133 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.1M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1133 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 8)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1455
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €4.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -63% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1133 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | ST | 26 | 1133 | 33% | 4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 1455 | 1518 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maicosuel Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €3.7M | €3.0M | flat |
| Hélder Costa Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Patrick Herrmann Bundesliga · 2019 | 28 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Filip Djordjevic Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €5.0M | €800k | fell |
| Michael Kightly Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Grégoire Defrel Serie A · 2021 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Munas Dabbur Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Roman Yaremchuk Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Pachuca | Rayo Vallecano | €4.5M | €3.5M |
| 21 Jul 2025 | Internacional | Pachuca | €3.0M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Real Oviedo | Internacional | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 17 Jul 2023 | Internacional | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 18 Mar 2022 | Avaí FC | Internacional | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Mar 2022 | Novo Hamburgo | Avaí FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Jan 2022 | Avaí FC | Novo Hamburgo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 May 2021 | Juventus-SC | Avaí FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Feb 2021 | Avaí FC | Juventus-SC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Metropolitano | Avaí FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Dec 2019 | Fluminense-SC | Metropolitano | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Sept 2019 | Metropolitano | Fluminense-SC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Apr 2019 | Criciúma | Metropolitano | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Jan 2019 | Metropolitano | Criciúma | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jul 2018 | Kyoto Sanga | Metropolitano | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Metropolitano | Kyoto Sanga | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.