Jayden Richardson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jayden Richardson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.32x the positional average in the league (1731 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €126k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1731 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1102
- Opponent strength
- 1219
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €237k – €405k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -52% to -1%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1731 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 30 | 1731 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1219 | 1102 | 0.31 |
| 2022/23 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 16 | 1321 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1309 | 1284 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 4 | 289 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Stockport County | 2 | 81 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taras Moroz Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Stephane Omeonga Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €400k | €450k | flat |
| Yegor Prokopenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Petrus Boumal Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €850k | €350k | fell |
| Sofiane Khadda Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Mikkel Wohlgemuth Superliga · 2019 | 24 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Ricki Lamie Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 26 | €275k | €375k | rose |
| Fabrício Baiano Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €475k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Boreham Wood | St. Mirren | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 20 Sept 2024 | Aberdeen FC | Boreham Wood | Free / loan | €325k |
| 31 May 2024 | Colchester Utd. | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €325k |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Aberdeen FC | Colchester Utd. | Free / loan | €325k |
| 11 Jan 2024 | Stockport | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €325k |
| 26 Jul 2023 | Aberdeen FC | Stockport | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Nottingham U21 | Aberdeen FC | €355k | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2022 | Notts County | Nottingham U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 7 Dec 2021 | Nottingham U23 | Notts County | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2021 | Forest Green | Nottingham U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 23 Sept 2020 | Nottingham U23 | Forest Green | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Exeter City | Nottingham U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Aug 2019 | Nottingham U23 | Exeter City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Nottingham U18 | Nottingham U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.