Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mikael Egill Ellertsson's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-12.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-8.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-10.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (2768 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.3M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2768 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1518
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €10.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+114 Elo); role change LM -> CM; relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -23% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2768 | 81% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 1518 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Venezia FC | Serie A | LM | 36 | 2480 | 73% | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 1506 | 1293 | 0.99 |
| 2022/23 | Spezia Calcio | Serie A | CM | 11 | 164 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1545 | 1310 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Spezia Calcio | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Poli Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €8.0M | €7.5M | flat |
| Morten Thorsby Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Pedro Obiang Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Maxime Barthelmé Ligue 1 · 2013 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jeff Hendrick Premier League · 2017 | 25 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Milan Badelj Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Antoine Makoumbou Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Albin Ekdal Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Venezia | Genoa | Free / loan | €3.4M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Genoa | Venezia | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Venezia | Genoa | €3.5M | €2.8M |
| 26 Jan 2023 | Spezia Calcio | Venezia | €1.5M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | SPAL | Spezia Calcio | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Spezia Calcio | SPAL | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Aug 2021 | SPAL U19 | Spezia Calcio | €1.0M | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SPAL U17 | SPAL U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 17 Aug 2018 | Fram Reykjavík | SPAL U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Feb 2018 | Fram U19 | Fram Reykjavík | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.