Antoine Makoumbou
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antoine Makoumbou's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (2240 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2240 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1292
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level down (-234 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -43% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | DM | 32 | 2240 | 73% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1292 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | DM | 33 | 2164 | 63% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1525 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | DM | 32 | 2708 | 79% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1500 | 1349 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 2 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 295 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soner Dikmen Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €2.8M | €1.7M | fell |
| Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Marco Ilaimaharitra Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Facundo Pereyra Super League 1 · 2015 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Arno Verschueren Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €2.7M | €700k | fell |
| Petros Mantalos Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Josip Radosevic Superliga · 2021 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Kerim Mrabti Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | Cagliari | Samsunspor | €1.5M | €3.5M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | NK Maribor | Cagliari | €2.3M | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Tabor Sezana | NK Maribor | Unknown | €300k |
| 31 Dec 2021 | NK Maribor | Tabor Sezana | Free / loan | €300k |
| 24 Jul 2021 | Tabor Sezana | NK Maribor | Free / loan | €150k |
| 25 Oct 2020 | Without Club | Tabor Sezana | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AC Ajaccio | FSV Mainz 05 II | Free / loan | €150k |
| 2 Jan 2018 | Without Club | AC Ajaccio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Monaco U19 | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.