Gamid Agalarov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gamid Agalarov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (1706 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €731k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1706 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1214
- Opponent strength
- 1335
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €694k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -39% to +120%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1706 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 1706 | 63% | 7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 1335 | 1214 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | ST | 25 | 1827 | 68% | 7 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 1312 | 1233 | 0.55 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | ST | 3 | 231 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1349 | 1248 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | ST | 19 | 585 | 22% | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 1320 | 1273 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | ST | 22 | 874 | 32% | 3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 1327 | 1364 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | ST | 29 | 2314 | 86% | 19 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.86 | 1344 | 1235 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | ST | 5 | 110 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1460 | 1271 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | ST | 5 | 242 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1399 | 1333 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Anzhi Makhachkala ( -2022) | Premier Liga | ST | 6 | 210 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1397 | 1187 | 0.69 |
| 2018/19 | Ural Yekaterinburg | Premier Liga | ST | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1262 | 1336 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 6 | 183 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 6 | 210 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 63 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 4 | 213 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 7 | 418 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zé Manuel Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Jhon Murillo Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Iñigo Córdoba Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €2.3M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jordan Remacle Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Fran Sol Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €850k | €5.0M | rose |
| Willum Thór Willumsson Eredivisie · 2023 | 25 | €1.3M | €3.8M | rose |
| Michael Frey Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Vladislav Sarveli Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2024 | Akhmat Grozny | Dinamo Makhach. | €500k | €900k |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Ufa | Akhmat Grozny | €4.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Volgar | Ufa | Free / loan | €350k |
| 22 Jan 2021 | Ufa | Volgar | Free / loan | €300k |
| 24 Jan 2020 | Anzhi | Ufa | €40k | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Anzhi II | Anzhi | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Anzhi U19 | Anzhi II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.