Javi López
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Javi López's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-5.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-6.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-5.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1713 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €5.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-170 Elo); relative output up 169% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -40% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1713 league minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | LB | 25 | 1713 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 1485 | 1294 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LB | 29 | 1935 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1490 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LB | 32 | 2387 | 70% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1488 | 1431 | 1.00 |
| 2021/22 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LB | 9 | 458 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1551 | 1358 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LB | 9 | 245 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1601 | 1428 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1466 | 1452 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Oviedo | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 323 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 111 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pedersen Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €5.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Lorenzo Pirola Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €5.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Andrea Cistana Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Ruan Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Igor Julio Serie A · 2020 | 22 | €4.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Mauricio Lemos Laliga · 2018 | 23 | €5.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Maximilian Bauer Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Fabio Depaoli Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Real Oviedo | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Real Sociedad | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 21 Jul 2024 | Alavés | Real Sociedad | €6.5M | €7.5M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Alavés B | Alavés | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Alavés U19 | Alavés B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Alavés Youth | Alavés U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | CD Tenerife You | Alavés Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.