Youssouf Fofana
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Youssouf Fofana's performance-implied value at EUR 11.4M-39.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.4M-24.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.4M-19.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (2217 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €18.3M vs market €23.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2217 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.4M – €19.7M
Trajectory drivers: role change DM -> CM; relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -67% to -0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | CM | 33 | 2217 | 65% | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1504 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | DM | 35 | 2510 | 73% | 1 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1497 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 32 | 2703 | 88% | 4 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 1477 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 36 | 3089 | 90% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1431 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2185 | 64% | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1433 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 35 | 2883 | 84% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1444 | 1549 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 13 | 1010 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 1410 | 1430 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 7 | 612 | 24% | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 1397 | 1426 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 17 | 910 | 27% | 2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 1502 | 1408 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 10 | 799 | 0 | 2 | 1621 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 5 | 401 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1759 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 8 | 710 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 4 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 5 | 331 | 1 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 3 | 245 | 0 | 0 | 1396 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiemoué Bakayoko Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €20.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Roman Eremenko Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €14.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €35.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Manuel Lazzari Serie A · 2021 | 28 | €21.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Kevin Kampl Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €18.0M | €17.5M | flat |
| Marten de Roon Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €14.0M | €19.0M | rose |
| Kevin-Prince Boateng Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Daichi Kamada Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2024 | Monaco | AC Milan | €26.0M | €30.0M |
| 29 Jan 2020 | R. Strasbourg | Monaco | €15.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | R. Strasbourg B | R. Strasbourg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | JA Drancy U19 | R. Strasbourg B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | JA Drancy U17 | JA Drancy U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Red Star Jugend | JA Drancy U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.