Tommaso Barbieri
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tommaso Barbieri's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-5.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (1704 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.9M vs market €3.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1704 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1299
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €5.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -30% to +49%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1704 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Cremonese | Serie A | RM | 29 | 1704 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 1491 | 1299 | 0.93 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | RM | 3 | 109 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1407 | 1614 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1772 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Loiodice Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Niccolò Zanellato Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fabian Nürnberger Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Carlos Carbonero Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Nenad Krsticic Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €3.3M | €2.5M | fell |
| Romano Schmid Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €4.5M | €17.0M | rose |
| Zaydou Youssouf Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Álex Berenguer Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €4.8M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2024 | Juve Next Gen | Cremonese | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Pisa | Juve Next Gen | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 20 Jul 2023 | Juve Next Gen | Pisa | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 11 Sept 2020 | Novara | Juventus U23 | €1.6M | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Novara Youth | Novara | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.