Danil Glebov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danil Glebov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-6.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-7.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-7.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.49x the positional average in the league (1534 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.7M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1534 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €7.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts; changed club; relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -51% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1534 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 21 | 1534 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1334 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | DM | 17 | 1530 | 57% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1289 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 10 | 815 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 1350 | 1445 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | DM | 30 | 2687 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1333 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | DM | 28 | 2472 | 92% | 4 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 1322 | 1343 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | DM | 30 | 2693 | 100% | 4 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 1351 | 1283 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 1922 | 71% | 1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 1348 | 1316 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CM | 19 | 1106 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1394 | 1374 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | AM | 8 | 570 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1396 | 1402 | 0.69 |
| 2018/19 | Anzhi Makhachkala ( -2022) | Premier Liga | AM | 8 | 453 | 17% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.49 | 1414 | 1187 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 5 | 306 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 6 | 401 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 8 | 342 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 9 | 675 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Rostov | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | Anzhi Makhachkala ( -2022) | 2 | 174 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 3 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marko Vejinović Eredivisie · 2016 | 26 | €4.8M | €2.5M | fell |
| Gojko Cimirot Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 29 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ricardo Esgaio Liga Portugal · 2019 | 26 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| William Vainqueur Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 26 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Adrien Trébel Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 27 | €8.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Viktor Elm Eredivisie · 2014 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Evgeniy Chernov Premier Liga · 2019 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Roman Zobnin Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2025 | Rostov | Dynamo Moscow | €8.0M | €8.0M |
| 13 Jan 2019 | Anzhi | Rostov | €50k | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Anzhi II | Anzhi | Unknown | €50k |
| 24 Apr 2017 | Anzhi U19 | Anzhi II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Ak. Loko U17 | Anzhi U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | TsPF Tom | Ak. Loko U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.