Péter Gulácsi

36 yrs · Goalkeeper · Hungary
RB Leipzig · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€348k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€992k – €1.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€409k – €964k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€81k – €1.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€348k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€992k – €1.7M
Projected value (24 months)€409k – €964k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Péter Gulácsi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh88.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €465k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationLow-17% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €13.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2009 (66% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1568
Opponent strength
1491
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€409k – €964k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -63% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26RB LeipzigBundesligaGK23200966%000.000.00149115680.94
2024/25RB LeipzigBundesligaGK30263286%000.000.00147715330.94
2023/24RB LeipzigBundesligaGK13117038%000.000.00145716921.01
2022/23RB LeipzigBundesligaGK654018%000.000.00151516851.04
2021/22RB LeipzigBundesligaGK33296797%000.000.00150916631.05
2020/21RB LeipzigBundesligaGK33297097%000.000.00152516571.06
2019/20RB LeipzigBundesligaGK32288094%020.060.05153117001.06
2018/19RB LeipzigBundesligaGK33292596%000.000.00150216501.05
2017/18RB LeipzigBundesligaGK33297097%000.000.00150915701.04
2016/17RB LeipzigBundesligaGK33297097%000.000.00153115941.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig6540001684
2024/25Dfb PokalRB Leipzig19000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig3270001752
2023/24Dfb PokalRB Leipzig218000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig3193001704
2022/23Franz Beckenbauer SupercupRB Leipzig190001847
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueRB Leipzig6540001613
2021/22Dfb PokalRB Leipzig548000—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig5450001746
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig8720001657
2020/21Dfb PokalRB Leipzig657000—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig10874001655
2018/19Dfb PokalRB Leipzig657000—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingRB Leipzig190001329
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig6540001634
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueRB Leipzig6540001656
2017/18Dfb PokalRB Leipzig221000—
2016/17Dfb PokalRB Leipzig112000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rui Patrício
Serie A · 2024
36€1.0M€600kfell
Christian Abbiati
Serie A · 2014
37€800k€500kfell
Andreas Luthe
Bundesliga · 2022
35€800k€300kfell
Roman Weidenfeller
Bundesliga · 2015
35€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Jean-Louis Leca
Ligue 1 · 2022
37€500k€200kfell
Tim Howard
Premier League · 2016
37€2.0M€750kfell
Morgan De Sanctis
Serie A · 2013
36€1.0M€500kfell
Andriy Dykan
Premier Liga · 2013
36€1.0M€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2015SalzburgLeipzig€3.0M€1.8M
1 Jul 2013LiverpoolSalzburgFree / loan€300k
11 Apr 2012Hull CityLiverpoolFree / loanData unavailable
19 Jul 2011LiverpoolHull CityFree / loanData unavailable
24 Nov 2010TranmereLiverpoolFree / loanData unavailable
17 Sept 2010LiverpoolTranmereFree / loanData unavailable
10 May 2010TranmereLiverpoolFree / loanData unavailable
16 Apr 2010LiverpoolTranmereFree / loanData unavailable
10 May 2009Hereford Utd.LiverpoolFree / loanData unavailable
2 Feb 2009LiverpoolHereford Utd.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Sept 2008MTK U19Liverpool€250kData unavailable
30 Jun 2008Liverpool U18MTK U19Free / loanData unavailable
31 Aug 2007MTK U19Liverpool U18Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2007MTK U17MTK U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005MTK Yth.MTK U17UnknownData unavailable
3 Sept 2003BVSC JgdMTK Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.