
Péter Gulácsi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Péter Gulácsi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 88.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €465k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2009 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €409k – €964k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -63% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 23 | 2009 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1491 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 30 | 2632 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1477 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 13 | 1170 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1457 | 1692 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 6 | 540 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1515 | 1685 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2967 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1509 | 1663 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1525 | 1657 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1531 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2925 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1502 | 1650 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1509 | 1570 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1531 | 1594 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1684 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1752 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 3 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1847 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1613 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 10 | 874 | 0 | 0 | 1655 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1329 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Patrício Serie A · 2024 | 36 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Christian Abbiati Serie A · 2014 | 37 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Andreas Luthe Bundesliga · 2022 | 35 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Roman Weidenfeller Bundesliga · 2015 | 35 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jean-Louis Leca Ligue 1 · 2022 | 37 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Tim Howard Premier League · 2016 | 37 | €2.0M | €750k | fell |
| Morgan De Sanctis Serie A · 2013 | 36 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Andriy Dykan Premier Liga · 2013 | 36 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2015 | Salzburg | Leipzig | €3.0M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Liverpool | Salzburg | Free / loan | €300k |
| 11 Apr 2012 | Hull City | Liverpool | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Jul 2011 | Liverpool | Hull City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Nov 2010 | Tranmere | Liverpool | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Sept 2010 | Liverpool | Tranmere | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 May 2010 | Tranmere | Liverpool | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Apr 2010 | Liverpool | Tranmere | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 10 May 2009 | Hereford Utd. | Liverpool | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Feb 2009 | Liverpool | Hereford Utd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2008 | MTK U19 | Liverpool | €250k | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2008 | Liverpool U18 | MTK U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2007 | MTK U19 | Liverpool U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2007 | MTK U17 | MTK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | MTK Yth. | MTK U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Sept 2003 | BVSC Jgd | MTK Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.