Tobias Sommer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tobias Sommer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.89x the positional average in the league (1782 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1782 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1273
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €889k – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 54 pts; team strength up (+181 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -45% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1782 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | DM | 20 | 1782 | 90% | 0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 1273 | 1242 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | DM | 15 | 722 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 1317 | 1062 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 3 | 194 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Koopmeiners Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €12.0M | rose |
| André Rømer Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Mateusz Klich Eredivisie · 2014 | 24 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Tochi Chukwuani Superliga · 2024 | 21 | €1.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Hallur Hansson Superliga · 2019 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Jacob Christensen Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Andreas Tatos Super League 1 · 2014 | 25 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Kasper Kusk Superliga · 2019 | 28 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2023 | Kolding IF | Sönderjyske | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Vejle BK | Kolding IF | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Kolding IF | Vejle BK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Vejle BK | Kolding IF | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Grótta | Vejle BK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Vejle BK | Grótta | Free / loan | €50k |
| 23 Jan 2020 | Vejle BK U19 | Vejle BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vejle BK Youth | Vejle BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | SJF Youth | Vejle BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.