
Tochi Chukwuani
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tochi Chukwuani's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-7.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-8.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (776 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 39.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 776 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 24)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1212
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €8.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -15% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 776 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 10 | 776 | 26% | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1212 | 1427 | 0.31 |
| 2023/24 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1683 | 85% | 3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.35 | 1299 | 1179 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Lyngby Boldklub | Superliga | CM | 14 | 699 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1304 | 1173 | 0.47 |
| 2020/21 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 18 | 350 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 1301 | 1308 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 3 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1279 | 1329 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Sportklub Puntigamer Sturm Graz | 5 | 400 | 0 | 0 | 1431 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 3 | 190 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Sportklub Puntigamer Sturm Graz | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sportklub Puntigamer Sturm Graz | 7 | 607 | 0 | 1 | 1630 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Lyngby Boldklub | 4 | 380 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Bernardo Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| David Turnbull Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €3.8M | €3.8M | flat |
| Dorukhan Toköz Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €4.7M | €5.0M | flat |
| Can Bozdogan Super Lig · 2022 | 21 | €4.3M | €4.5M | flat |
| Abdülkadir Ömür Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Todd Cantwell Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €9.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Okechukwu Azubuike Super Lig · 2020 | 23 | €1.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| Maksim Mukhin Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €2.8M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | Sturm Graz | Rangers | €4.6M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Lyngby BK | Sturm Graz | €640k | €1.5M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Nordsjaelland | Lyngby BK | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FCN Youth | Nordsjaell. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.