Xeber Alkain
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Xeber Alkain's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (929 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €259k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 929 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1142
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €356k – €774k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -51% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 929 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | RW | 14 | 929 | 34% | 2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 1142 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | RW | 10 | 300 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1512 | 1431 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 4 | 254 | 3 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Rodrigues Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Amir Agayev Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Jonah Ayunga Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Zlatko Tripic Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Fernando Andrade Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €1.6M | €600k | fell |
| Ange-Freddy Plumain Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €600k | €325k | fell |
| Mykola Kovtalyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Bojan Matic Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €600k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2026 | SD Eibar | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jul 2024 | Alavés | SD Eibar | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Sociedad B | Alavés | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Real Sociedad C | Real Sociedad B | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Arenas Club | Real Sociedad C | Free / loan | €100k |
| 11 Jan 2019 | Real Sociedad C | Arenas Club | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | R. Sociedad U19 | Real Sociedad C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.