Bogdan Jocic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bogdan Jocic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (1067 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €410k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1067 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1339
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €488k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -47% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1067 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CM | 20 | 1067 | 40% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 1352 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CM | 15 | 887 | 33% | 2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 1312 | 1322 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CM | 6 | 308 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 1373 | 1271 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 3 | 241 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 5 | 348 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamoutou N'Diaye Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Diego Lopes Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Lerin Duarte Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Rúrik Gíslason Superliga · 2013 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
| Mikkel Duelund Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Nicolaj Madsen Superliga · 2013 | 25 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Guy-Michel Landel Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €1.1M | €400k | fell |
| Larry Azouni Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €700k | €550k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2024 | Vozdovac | Rubin Kazan | €400k | €1.0M |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Hellas Verona | Vozdovac | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Pro Vercelli | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Hellas Verona | Pro Vercelli | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Metalac | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €100k |
| 14 Sept 2021 | Hellas Verona | Metalac | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Verona U19 | Hellas Verona | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Red Star U19 | Verona U19 | €500k | Data unavailable |
| 29 Aug 2019 | Graficar | Red Star U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Red Star U19 | Graficar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Red Star U17 | Red Star U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Red Star U15 | Red Star U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.