Mikkel Duelund
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mikkel Duelund's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.43x the positional average in the league (1171 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €122k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1171 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1098
- Opponent strength
- 1315
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €246k – €483k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +21% (IQR -38% to +67%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1171 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vejle Boldklub | Superliga | LW | 18 | 1171 | 59% | 5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 1315 | 1098 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | LW | 3 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1454 | 1329 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | AM | 13 | 516 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 1251 | 1356 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | AM | 15 | 934 | 31% | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 1349 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | AM | 4 | 231 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 1234 | 1331 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | AM | 22 | 875 | 29% | 2 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.64 | 1395 | 1243 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | AM | 4 | 77 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1188 | 1563 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | AM | 4 | 161 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1239 | 1497 | 0.54 |
| 2018/19 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | AM | 5 | 244 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 1253 | 1502 | 0.44 |
| 2018/19 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | AM | 6 | 161 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 1.12 | 0.40 | 1288 | 1528 | 0.57 |
| 2017/18 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RW | 19 | 1244 | 53% | 7 | 6 | 0.94 | 0.50 | 1296 | 1492 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | AM | 23 | 1373 | 59% | 5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 1266 | 1377 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | AM | 22 | 1053 | 35% | 5 | 3 | 0.68 | 0.43 | 1259 | 1447 | 0.53 |
| 2014/15 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | AM | 7 | 170 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1268 | 1416 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Vejle Boldklub | 4 | 237 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 3 | 163 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1491 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 242 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 72 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1287 |
| 2018/19 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1416 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 374 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 1320 |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 347 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 7 | 165 | 0 | 0 | 1404 |
| 2015/16 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 86 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1312 |
| 2014/15 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Templeton Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 29 | €275k | €250k | flat |
| Mario Engels Eredivisie · 2024 | 31 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Marios Ogboe Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 26 | €250k | €400k | rose |
| Lirim Qamili Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €450k | €900k | rose |
| Evgeniy Markov Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Pedro Henrique Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Wágner Liga Portugal · 2016 | 29 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Vasilios Koutsianikoulis Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Aarhus GF | Vejle BK | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Dynamo Kyiv | Aarhus GF | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Aarhus GF | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Dynamo Kyiv | Aarhus GF | Free / loan | €700k |
| 29 Jan 2023 | NEC Nijmegen | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dynamo Kyiv | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Midtjylland | Dynamo Kyiv | €4.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Aarhus GF Youth | FCM Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.