Fabio Ferraro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabio Ferraro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €582k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2532 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1387
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €588k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: role change LM -> LB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -42% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 29 | 2532 | 94% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1387 | 1207 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | FCV Dender EH | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 30 | 2415 | 89% | 0 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 1388 | 1267 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RWD Molenbeek | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 1 | 14 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1495 | 1214 | 0.63 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederico Venâncio Liga Portugal · 2016 | 23 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
| Derry Murkin Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €900k | €1.8M | rose |
| Digão Super Lig · 2017 | 24 | €700k | €100k | fell |
| Melle Meulensteen Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Laurent Jans Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Siebe Horemans Eredivisie · 2023 | 25 | €650k | €3.5M | rose |
| Tobias Pachonik Eredivisie · 2020 | 25 | €800k | €550k | fell |
| Dries Wuytens Eredivisie · 2016 | 25 | €900k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2023 | RWDM | FCV Dender EH | Unknown | €250k |
| 17 Jul 2022 | Zébra Élites | RWDM | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Charleroi U18 | Charleroi U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Mouscron U18 | Charleroi U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Tubize Yth. | Mouscron U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Mouscron Yth. | Tubize Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RAEC Mons Youth | Mouscron Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.