
Melle Meulensteen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Melle Meulensteen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (2832 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2832 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -43% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | DM | 34 | 2832 | 93% | 5 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 1307 | 1245 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | DM | 27 | 2044 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1369 | 1158 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2702 | 88% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1349 | 1342 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2880 | 94% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1338 | 1260 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2946 | 96% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1366 | 1178 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CB | 14 | 1054 | 45% | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 1384 | 1174 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1488 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 2 | 136 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 4 | 311 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aytaç Kara Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €1.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ibrahim Olawoyin Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €2.2M | rose |
| Iver Fossum Superliga · 2022 | 26 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Jakob Johansson Super League 1 · 2016 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €3.2M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ryan Koolwijk Eredivisie · 2013 | 28 | €1.2M | €750k | fell |
| Maxime D'Arpino Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Tjaronn Chery Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | Sampdoria | Go Ahead Eagles | €400k | €700k |
| 25 Jul 2024 | Vitesse | Sampdoria | €175k | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | RKC Waalwijk | Vitesse | €1.0M | €800k |
| 24 Jan 2018 | Preston U19 | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2017 | Lancaster City | Preston U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Sept 2017 | Preston U19 | Lancaster City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Man Utd Youth | Preston U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.