Andrej Ilic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andrej Ilic's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-13.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-11.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.5M-14.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.23x the positional average in the league (2257 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.6M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2257 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.60
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.63
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1488
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.5M – €14.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 43 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -19% to +33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | ST | 32 | 2257 | 74% | 5 | 10 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 1488 | 1392 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | ST | 16 | 943 | 31% | 7 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 1512 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1374 | 1552 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 157 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC RFS | 4 | 354 | 2 | 1 | 1301 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naïm Sliti Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €7.0M | €5.8M | flat |
| Ermedin Demirovic Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €12.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| M'Bala Nzola Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Iago Falque Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €10.0M | €17.5M | rose |
| Alberto Paloschi Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Adem Ljajic Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €11.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Lorenzo Melgarejo Premier Liga · 2016 | 26 | €6.5M | €3.8M | fell |
| Krzysztof Piatek Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €7.0M | €8.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Lille | Union Berlin | €5.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Union Berlin | Lille | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Lille | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Vålerenga | Lille | €3.8M | €2.3M |
| 18 Aug 2023 | RFS | Vålerenga | €1.1M | €1.0M |
| 3 Sept 2021 | Javor-Matis | RFS | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Oct 2020 | Napredak | Javor-Matis | Free / loan | €250k |
| 22 Aug 2018 | Partizan U19 | Napredak | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.