Mario Stroeykens
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mario Stroeykens's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-4.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-8.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (668 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 40.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.2M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 18% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 668 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1382
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 18%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €8.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; team strength down (-82 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -65% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 668 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 20 | 668 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 1382 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 23 | 1536 | 57% | 3 | 5 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 1359 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 28 | 1697 | 63% | 4 | 5 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 1389 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 26 | 1122 | 37% | 4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 1270 | 1432 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 7 | 73 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1338 | 1459 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 3 | 16 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1334 | 1457 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 1296 |
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1365 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 7 | 430 | 1 | 1 | 1527 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1388 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 4 | 146 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1300 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Assunção Liga Portugal · 2022 | 22 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Aytaç Kara Super Lig · 2015 | 22 | €3.5M | €1.3M | fell |
| Ilzat Akhmetov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| José Rodríguez Super Lig · 2016 | 22 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mandela Keita Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Mamadou Fofana Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Tozé Liga Portugal · 2016 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Alexis Flips Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €3.0M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2021 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.