Ilzat Akhmetov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilzat Akhmetov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (1400 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €810k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1400 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1361
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €562k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -38% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1400 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | AM | 23 | 1400 | 52% | 1 | 6 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 1361 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | AM | 5 | 53 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1225 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | LW | 15 | 508 | 19% | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 1333 | 1405 | 0.49 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | AM | 2 | 28 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1301 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | AM | 27 | 1025 | 38% | 2 | 6 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 1304 | 1405 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 20 | 1001 | 37% | 1 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 1339 | 1363 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 14 | 697 | 26% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1347 | 1383 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 21 | 1377 | 51% | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1385 | 1447 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 1798 | 67% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1417 | 1547 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | AM | 3 | 108 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1445 | 1403 | 0.75 |
| 2016/17 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | RW | 12 | 599 | 22% | 0 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 1404 | 1373 | 0.70 |
| 2015/16 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | LW | 3 | 49 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1456 | 1410 | 0.79 |
| 2014/15 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | LW | 9 | 183 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1523 | 1517 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 8 | 421 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 10 | 520 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 6 | 467 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 247 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 11 | 618 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 182 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 5 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 354 | 0 | 1 | 1441 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 220 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 4 | 302 | 0 | 1 | 1697 |
| 2016/17 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 3 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Rubin Kazan | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1581 |
| 2014/15 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Mensah Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.4M | €2.4M | flat |
| Andriy Totovytskyi Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Luigi Bruins Eredivisie · 2015 | 28 | €500k | €650k | rose |
| Alexandru Maxim Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €1.6M | €3.5M | rose |
| Jonatan Lucca Liga Portugal · 2021 | 27 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Goran Causic Premier Liga · 2020 | 28 | €1.4M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jakob Ankersen Superliga · 2018 | 28 | €600k | €475k | fell |
| Andy Driver Eredivisie · 2016 | 29 | €800k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Zenit S-Pb | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | KS Samara | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 6 Aug 2025 | Zenit S-Pb | KS Samara | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 9 Jan 2024 | Krasnodar | Zenit S-Pb | €850k | €3.0M |
| 7 Jul 2022 | CSKA Moscow | Krasnodar | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 26 Jul 2018 | Rubin Kazan | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Rubin Kazan II | Rubin Kazan | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Akademia Rubin | Rubin Kazan II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Akron Konoplev | Akademia Rubin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.