Jhon Arias
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jhon Arias's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-9.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.9M-17.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-11.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1124 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1124 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1572
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.6M – €11.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -71% to -55%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1124 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RW | 23 | 1124 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 1572 | 1425 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Colombia | 3 | 243 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 84 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Niasse Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Yannick Bolasie Premier League · 2018 | 29 | €18.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Jürgen Locadia Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Christian Benteke Premier League · 2020 | 30 | €10.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Lei Wu Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Sam Vokes Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Wilfried Bony Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €18.0M | €5.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Wolves | Palmeiras | €25.0M | €15.0M |
| 24 Jul 2025 | Fluminense | Wolves | €17.0M | €17.0M |
| 18 Aug 2021 | Indep. Santa Fe | Fluminense | €600k | €1.0M |
| 25 Jan 2021 | CD América | Indep. Santa Fe | Unknown | €850k |
| 4 Jan 2021 | Patriotas | CD América | Unknown | €725k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | Llaneros FC | Patriotas | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Patriotas | Llaneros FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Apr 2017 | Tijuana U20 | Patriotas | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Dorados U20 | Tijuana U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Unknown | Dorados U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.