Dominic Calvert-Lewin

The model rates Dominic Calvert-Lewin's performance-implied value at EUR 17.4M-33.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.7M-29.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.0M-14.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.29x the positional average in the league (2730 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2730 (80% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.49

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.65

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

94 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1521

Opponent strength

1595

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€7.0M – €14.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 33 pts; changed club; relative output up 77% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -67% to -20%).

• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.