Kiko Bondoso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kiko Bondoso's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (2014 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €261k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2014 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1308
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €319k – €596k
Trajectory drivers: changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -49% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | LW | 31 | 2014 | 66% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 1308 | 1279 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LW | 28 | 1963 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 1360 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | RW | 3 | 193 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1525 | 1199 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | LW | 34 | 2860 | 93% | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 1404 | 1290 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | RW | 34 | 2728 | 89% | 6 | 6 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 1369 | 1252 | 0.67 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilnur Alshin Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Pintassilgo Liga Portugal · 2015 | 30 | €900k | €150k | fell |
| Idir Ouali Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Fred Benson Eredivisie · 2014 | 30 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Juan Delgado Liga Portugal · 2022 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Sam Larsson Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €1.8M | €1.1M | fell |
| Gustavo Sauer Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €700k | €2.5M | rose |
| Khoren Bayramyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | M. Tel Aviv | Moreirense | Unknown | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Rio Ave | M. Tel Aviv | Free / loan | €800k |
| 4 Jul 2024 | M. Tel Aviv | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €600k |
| 2 Sept 2023 | Vizela | M. Tel Aviv | €800k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Lusitano FCV | Vizela | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ferreira Aves | Lusitano FCV | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Moimenta Beira | Ferreira Aves | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Moim. Beira U19 | Moimenta Beira | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Viseu U19 | Moim. Beira U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Moimenta S17 | Viseu U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.