Tiago Manso

26 yrs · Right-back · Portugal
CD Tondela · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 174 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€900k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€268k – €676k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€389k – €656k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€488k – €1.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€287k – €389k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€268k – €676k
Model value (performance-implied)€389k – €656k
Projected value (24 months)€488k – €1.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tiago Manso's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 94

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average8.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €357k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationLow-13% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1535 (50% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
9 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1194
Opponent strength
1361
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€488k – €1.2M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -51% to -32%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1535 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CD TondelaLiga PortugalRB28153550%110.120.17136111940.58

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Matej Rodin
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
27€850k€400kfell
Pecks
Liga Portugal · 2015
26€700k€200kfell
Bruno Godeau
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
26€650k€725kflat
Ákos Kecskés
Premier Liga · 2022
26€800k€400kfell
Rémy Amieux
Eredivisie · 2013
27€500k€300kfell
Karol Mets
Eredivisie · 2019
26€1.0M€600kfell
Wouter Corstjens
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
27€600k€300kfell
Bruno Wilson
Liga Portugal · 2022
26€900k€900kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024BelenensesTondelaFree / loan€400k
7 Jul 2023TrofenseBelenensesFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2022Estoril U23TrofenseFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2020SintrenseEstoril U23Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Real SC U19SintrenseFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Linda-a-VelhaReal SC U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Belenenses U17Linda-a-VelhaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Belenenses S15Belenenses U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Belenenses YthBelenenses S15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.