Naïs Djouahra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Naïs Djouahra's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (2744 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €633k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2744 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €779k – €2.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -37% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | LW | 34 | 2744 | 90% | 6 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 1322 | 1310 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 7 | 215 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1562 | 1559 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | LW | 2 | 27 | 1% | 0 | 1 | 3.33 | 0.51 | 1464 | 1567 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 3 | 128 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael de Leeuw Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Mustapha Alasan Jarju Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 27 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Idriss Saadi Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Vitaliy Ponomar Premier Liga · 2016 | 26 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Roy Beerens Eredivisie · 2013 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Mike van Duinen Eredivisie · 2019 | 28 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Kostadin Hazurov Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 28 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Brana Ilic Super League 1 · 2013 | 28 | €850k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | HNK Rijeka | Arouca | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | CD Leganés | HNK Rijeka | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Aug 2023 | HNK Rijeka | CD Leganés | Free / loan | €850k |
| 2 Aug 2022 | Real Sociedad B | HNK Rijeka | €750k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | CD Mirandés | Real Sociedad B | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Sept 2020 | Real Sociedad B | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €200k |
| 3 Jul 2018 | St-Étienne U19 | Real Sociedad B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | St-Étienne U17 | St-Étienne U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | ASSE Yth. | St-Étienne U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Bourgoin Jugend | ASSE Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.